The Syrian Snowball

Chemical weapons in WW1

Let me get this straight.  The President wants to bomb Syria… against a dictatorship that was used chemical weapons.  It’s deja vu all over again.

There is no doubt that chemical weapons were used in Syria.  There is doubt that Assad ordered it, or that it was done by a rouge military faction, or by the rebels, or by a group trying to make it look like the other side.  Nothing has been confirmed.  Why not wait for the results from the UN inspectors?
Timing and immediacy?  That was a week ago, or months ago when reports of chemical weapon use was first reported. or 2 1/2 years ago when protesters we killed in the streets of Damascus.  If the US has held off this long from taking decisive action it can hold off until the UN inspectors report comes out.  Or the Arab League asks for help.  
The Obama administration has said the purpose of this attack is not to effect regime change but to detour Assad from using Chemical weapons.  If Assad is not hurt enough by a bombing to lose his advantage over the rebels the cost vs. effect is in Assad’s favor.  He killed rebels and scared others with minimal damage to himself.  If Assad is hit hard enough to be an effective enough to tip at least the short term balance of the civil war, thus effecting regime change.  
What if we bomb and we are wrong?  What if it was Al-Qaida plot to use chemical weapons and frame Assad?  Who writes that apology? What are our obligations in such a situation?
The reason Libya work was because the Arab league, NATO, and even the UN was behind it.  Our armed forces were tools of international will.  I was fairly neutral on the Libya intervention but the justification was there.  There is little to no will for us to go into Syria internationally therefore any argument for intervention because of international outrage is false.  Not until a group actually votes to support it.  
Chemical weapons are horrible.  So are land mines and IEDs and large bombs dropped from the sky.  They all kill indiscriminately.  You place them in an area with the hope that the will go off and just kill the intended targets without hitting any innocents.  War is messy.  Unless there are eyes on every person being killed it is a weapon of indiscriminate destruction.  Convict Assad in international court and jail his generals.  There are ways to do that already in the works.
There is nothing in the history of Syria, the Middle East, or in US bombing any nation that says anything other than it will escalate The US bombing Syria is like throwing a snowball at someone on the playground more will inevitably be thrown.  This attack will only snowball.  

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